Can we predict the jobs robots will do?

This post introduces a 'robot exposure index' to predict the impact of robotics on jobs. It details a methodology using Claude to assess current robot capabilities for performing job tasks across different environmental controls (E0-E3). The post quantifies that robots can perform 74% of physical tasks in the US, but are cost-competitive for only 0.3% of tasks. It also presents a historical backtest showing that jobs with higher robot exposure experienced greater wage and employment declines over 50 years, validating the predictive power of the exposure index.